Category Archives: Financial Planning – General

Preparing Your Family Finances and Our Role

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How do we prepare for the loss of someone who plays a lead role in your family’s financial life? This can be a partner, a spouse, a parent, or even yourself. Aikapa’s role during such a crisis focuses on ensuring that the family will have the available cash flow until the transfer of the estate is completed AND on providing the information that the Estate attorney and CPA require to transition the estate efficiently. Below, I’ve outlined how we can prepare for such a loss.
1. Short-Term Cash Flow: Make certain that emergency accounts have enough cash to support family expenses for 6 months and that the account is available to those left behind. That means that the family has access to the login information and that the account is titled properly (T.O.D., Joint or Trust are the usual titles).
2. Consolidate Financial and Legal Records:  It is useful if the family has access to financial and legal records.
a. We can easily generate financial information needed for accounts that we directly manage.
b. It would be useful for the family to also have original financial records for accounts or finances not under our purview.
c. Similarly, we would benefit from information on former and current employer benefits and contact information.
d. Finally, the estate documents should also be easily available by the family or we should have a copy filed with us for reference.
3. Verify that you have the Appropriate Account Titling:  The accounts that take more effort to transfer are those titled under the individual’s name unless they have a wrapper to make them non-probate assets. We will use a T.O.D. (Transfer On Death) wrapper that bypasses Probate Court if your Estate plan doesn’t indicate otherwise.
a. We can easily adjust the title for those accounts that we directly manage. We regularly review these against your wishes and your Estate plan. 
b. Accounts held at other institutions AND under an individual’s name will need your management and update (check with us if unsure). We will consult with your Estate plan and make recommendations, but it will be up to you to ensure these are implemented. Example of accounts that we find are often missed include checking accounts, savings accounts, employer stock accounts, options, 529 and inherited accounts held at other institutions.
c. Other assets, such as real estate, need to be titled correctly as specified in your Estate plan. We can guide you, but you must implement these yourself.
4. Complete and Update Beneficiary: We sometimes find that although everyone is well intentioned, beneficiary designations are missed. Though we find this most often with employer accounts, we do see it also with other accounts.
a. We can easily review and update beneficiaries on accounts under our management and we do so regularly.
b. Accounts at your employer require that you check and make any needed changes yourself. Ideally you will also keep a copy of your beneficiary selection with your financial records.
c. Your home or other real estate may also need a beneficiary designation, but we follow your Estate plan since different states use different rules.
d. Accounts held at other institutions will also need to be updated with beneficiaries.
5. Availability of All Logins and Passwords. It is essential for the family to have access to login and passwords. This includes your computer, phone and online passwords. If you would prefer not to share this information then let us know WHERE the information is located, and we’ll share the location with family when and if needed.
As you would expect, we each respond in our own way to the death of someone close to us. Some focus on getting things done while others find themselves unable to function. The range of reactions spans the full spectrum of emotions. This is the way it should be and ideally, we strive to let them take the time to grieve without anxiety over finances. If we know all is in order, we can delay most of the initial tasks and allow the family the peace they need to deal with the loss while we create what will be needed by the Estate attorney. Once we know that the family has cash to support spending for 3-6 months, we work on generating a list of assets that are part of the decedent’s estate. We generate this initial information from our records (based on the financial plan and visual asset map). We then work with the family to update this information, but it is only after the family obtains death certificates that we can reach out and obtain exact information on items on this asset list. We need to ensure that we have the correct information on the title, beneficiary on record, total account balance and custodian for each asset. The Estate attorney will be able to begin their work only after they are provided with death certificates, estate documents, and our detailed list of assets. They will create an action plan, outline the process, estimate the costs and provide a potential timeline to settle the estate. The Estate attorney is the one responsible for legal filings and letting us know when the assets are ready for transfer. We are responsible for the actual transfer and settling of accounts. Dependent on the time of the year and with the guidance from the Estate attorney, we may want to delay the involvement of the CPA or bring them on immediately.

Once this process begins, it is imperative that we keep the lines of communication open throughout the process as the Estate settles and assets transition. There are time constraints associated with certain filings and activities related to settling the estate which makes it doubly important to work together. But it all begins with having your documents available, titled correctly, and beneficiaries clearly stated. We will focus on reviewing your estate documents during 2021 meetings.

Edi Alvarez, CFP®
BS, BEd, MS

www.aikapa.com

New tax rules (Secure Act of 2019)

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As you know, we believe strongly that managing tax liability is essential to building wealth. The Secure Act of 2019 has made significant changes which we will use to create and action strategies best suited for each of you.
Everyone, near retirement, is aware that there was an extension to the Required Minimum Distribution (i.e., RMD) from age 70.5 to age 72. This is good for many since it gives you more control over your tax liability early in retirement, but it also has made the Roth accounts an even more powerful tool for some.

Sadly, the Secure Act of 2019 has made inherited IRAs a big tax burden for beneficiaries, particularly trust beneficiaries. Because of this, IRA accounts that use a trust as a beneficiary may need to be re-examined to ensure that the language allows beneficiaries to minimize their tax liability.
Let me know if these topics are of interest and we’ll include them at our next financial planning meeting.

Edi Alvarez, CFP®
BS, BEd, MS

www.aikapa.com

Your Portfolio Allocation and Emotional Reactions: The Coronavirus and Portfolio Discipline

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Here we go again – we’ve been down a similar road before, so none of this is news to those who have been with us through prior overreactions by market participants.

Volatility is part and parcel of participating in the market. When fear grips the market, selloffs by those who react to that fear provide portfolio opportunities for those who understand and adhere to a strategy. It is AIKAPA’s strategy to maintain your risk allocation and either ride out the volatile times or rebalance into them. Meaning that if you don’t need cash in the short-term, we buy when everyone else is selling.

As news of the Coronavirus (or other events outside of our control) stokes fear and uncertainty on a variety of fronts, it is only natural to wonder if we should make adjustments to your portfolio. If you are reacting to fear, then the answer is a resounding NO. On the other hand, if you are applying our strategy in combination with an understanding of the impact on business, then the answer is likely YES. When an adjustment is indicated we look for value and BUY while selling positions that are relatively over-valued. If the market continues to respond fearfully (without a change in value) then we will likely continue to buy equities and may sell bonds to fund those purchases. The only caveats to this strategy are that we must know that you don’t have short-term cash flow needs, that we stay within your risk tolerance, and that we are buying based on current value (keep in mind that value is based on facts not fear).

If you feel compelled to do something, then consider the following:

  1. Contact your mortgage broker and see if it makes sense to refinance (likely rates will drop soon after a significant market decline).
  2. Seriously examine the impact this has on your life today and let’s talk about changing your allocation once markets recover.
  3. Review the money you’ve set aside for emergencies and prepare for potential disruptions if these are likely.
  4. Business owners should consider the impact (if any) on their business, vendors and employees. Particularly important will be to maintain communication with all stake holders and retain a good cash flow to sustain the business if there is a possibility of disruptions.
  5. Regarding your portfolio, if you have cash/savings that you want to invest, this is a good time to transfer it to your account and have us buy into the market decline.

Market changes are a normal part of investing. Risk and return are linked. To earn the higher returns offered by investing in stocks, it is necessary to accept investment risk, which manifests itself through stock price volatility. Large downturns are a common feature of the stock market. Despite these downturns the stock market does tend to trend upwards over the long-term, driven by economics, inflation, and corporate profit growth. To earn the attractive long-term returns offered by stock market investing, one must stay invested for the long-term and resist the urge to jump in and out of the market. It has been proven many times that we can’t time stock market behavior consistently and must instead maintain portfolio discipline (if you want a historical overview of markets, see the “Market Uncertainty and You” video on our website www.aikapa.com/education.htm).

It is your long-term goals and risk tolerance that provide us with our guide to rebalancing and adjusting your portfolio, not short-term political, economic or market emotional reactions. In your globally diversified portfolio, we will take every opportunity to rebalance and capture value during portfolio gyrations. This IS the benefit of diversification and working with AIKAPA.

Edi Alvarez, CFP®
BS, BEd, MS

www.aikapa.com

Aging gracefully―a blueprint for your future

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If you could peek into the future and the final 10-20 years of your life, what would that look like? Do you see yourself traveling, healthy, energetic and excited about experiencing new challenges? Or do you have visions of illness, body pains, lethargy, disengagement and a lonely life?

What if you could manage that trajectory to a more positive future with fewer deficits and more joy? Research is churning out reports on how we can slow down the negative parts of aging and enhance the joyful aspects of our lives.

Throughout my life, I’ve met many people on both sides of aging. It is clear that our attitude drives this journey. It can turn us into victims or champions over our lives. Often it begins with our attitude each day―do we resign ourselves to a self-defeating diagnosis and settle for dissatisfaction? Or do we take daily challenges as an opportunity to remain engaged and positive? Experts in aging are in agreement that we will be much happier as we age if we are comfortable in our chosen lifestyle (that is to say, we are in the habit of doing things that give meaning and value to us) and that we don’t let our “illness” or age-related challenges define our daily lives.

As technology continues its exponential growth, the key to managing and thriving in this ever-faster moving era is our ability to adapt and remain true to ourselves. I believe equally important is to allow ourselves time to unwind and gain perspective. Unfortunately, most of us would likely skip ‘self-time’ (time for meditation or reflection) in pursuit of getting more accomplished.

Though it doesn’t take a financial windfall to have a healthy retirement, it does help tremendously not to have financial worries. Financial plans and conscious financial choices will help minimize financial anxiety and create an opportunity for a healthy retirement. Beyond this opportunity, it is up to us to build lifestyles (and needed financial resources) that give us joy today and throughout our later lives.

Research on aging recommends that we include the following:

  1. Though we are all different and choose different lifestyles, we all benefit from activities that provide us with at least a minimal level of social interactions. It is social engagement, according to these experts, that can add years and quality to our lives. In addition, volunteering has been shown to reduce pain as well as increase endorphins. Even when homebound, it is essential to be active and motivated.
  2. It is no surprise that a graceful happy retired life must also include regular and vigorous mental engagement. Your financial plan should be your guide to attain your goals, but it will be your consistent financial behaviors that will keep you mentally engaged with your money later in life. We are all aware that as we age we have a higher risk of memory loss, dementia and even Alzheimer’s. We can’t control inherited diseases (50% of those over 85 are affected with a dementia-like Alzheimer’s disease but that also means, 50% are not!) but we can rise to the challenge and keep our brains mentally active.
  3. Improving your quality of life includes addressing your physical health and diet. It is recommended that we exercise regularly, including at least 45 minutes of aerobic activity. A diet with reduced portions and elimination of processed foods appears to also be connected with healthier happier lives.
  4. Though sometimes difficult, it is essential that we be able to ‘let go’ of hate, resentment and regret that reinforces negative emotions. Though it’s never easy, experts say that ideally you’ll forgive or ‘walk away’ to attain a healthier life. I find that smiling every day makes me happier and has the added bonus that it makes others smile too.
  5. Finally, stay true to your lifestyle and decision process throughout your life. If you are comfortable in your core values and habits then even the worst challenges will be manageable.

In short, a successful blueprint for a long and rewarding life entails the intentional effort to remain active, engaged and positive.

Edi Alvarez, CFP®
BS, BEd, MS

www.aikapa.com

Cost effective implementation of Long Term Care insurance

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Long Term Care (LTC) decisions form a critical part of all retirement plans. That said, we can’t properly address individual LTC needs until a retirement plan is designed and participants are able to quantify the aspect of Long Term Care they will fund. If LTC insurance is part of their ideal LTC plan then we must identify the best policy and the most cost effective way to pay for it. This article is intended to review LTC and layout how a business can help pay for LTC insurance in a cost effective manner.

(1) Long Term Care – a review
Long-term care (https://longtermcare.acl.gov) is a range of services and supports needed to meet personal care which is not included in healthcare. About 2/3 of the population will need LTC after age 65 (and 1/3 before 65). Of those reaching age 65, 70% will need LTC or assistance with activities important to life. LTC includes everything from social services, physical and emotional support, finances, housing, a myriad of legal decisions, family interaction and social dynamics. LTC should include all assistance with tasks that will allow for productive, engaged and enthusiastic daily life. It should include assistance with routine tasks such as housework, money management, taking medication, shopping, traveling, caring for pets, responding to emergencies (these are known as Instrumental ADLs) and NOT just the “basic” Activities of Daily Living (ADLs, such as assistance with bathing or eating).

Currently, 80% of all LTC needs provided in the home are supported by unpaid family, friends or neighbors. The average support needed in the home is about 20 hours per week. Fortunately, as services develop, we find an increase in community support services. These include adult care services, transportation services, and home care that is round the clock or as needed.

If you require or prefer the use of LTC services provided by an institution or facility you will need to investigate Assisted Living, board and care homes, or Continuing Care retirement communities, not just nursing homes.

(2) What is LTC insurance?
LTC insurance is a contract to pay premiums every year for care you may need in the future. It will pay out an agreed daily amount for your care only if you are unable to do a certain number of Activities of Daily Living (ADLs). These are the basic ADLs (includes bathing, eating and dressing). LTC insurance is not usually available if there are pre-existing conditions. Benefits are provided for a set number of years of care based on a daily dollar amount dependent on local costs and total maximum benefits (these are usually capped at around $350K). But how many years of LTC will be needed is unique to the individual, though we have past indications that males need at least 2 and females 4 years. Three years is the standard, but we know that 20% of those over 65 years will need ADL assistance for longer than 5 years. For these reasons we recommend this insurance purchase be made based on your retirement plan.

Naturally, LTC insurance premiums are less expensive for the young (and healthy) but starting early will cost more over time and is not advisable if your personal cash flow can’t support this expense throughout your life.

(3) Best ways to pay for LTC insurance
How do we pay for LTC insurance if we think it fits within our retirement plan? It should be clear that healthcare or Medicare (except for very short periods of time and only in specific emergency situations) do not cover LTC costs. On the other hand, Medicaid does cover LTC but has very strict requirements to qualify. If you are fortunate to qualify, LTC coverage is provided by the Older American Act (OAA) and Department of Veteran Affairs.

The most common way to pay for basic LTC needs is through insurance or out of the personal or family budget. Other ways include a reverse mortgage, annuities, other assets, and income from a dedicated source (such as rental income).

LTC insurance premium costs are based on your age, your location, your wishes for level and amount of care. The premiums are not usually a burden on a yearly basis but they take a toll over time. These premiums must remain in effect for life. Additionally, policy premiums today can increase by more than inflation (over the last year we’ve seen 18% to 90%[!] increases in premiums for existing policies).

Long Term Care Purchasing Options

There are at least 2 ways to pay for a new LTC insurance policy – as an individual or as a business. The advantage of an individual LTC insurance policy is that it is based on your needs and can be tailored to you. The advantage of a business LTC insurance plan is that it can be paid by the business and therefore tax deductible. If you are the business owner it can also be tailored to your wishes (see the chart below assembled by Aikapa).

LTC insurance premiums are supposed to be deductible but we find that most of our clients with high AGI (Adjusted Gross Income) and low medical expenses are not able to deduct their premiums on their annual IRS tax filings (Schedule A has a 10% AGI floor). In addition, the deduction is also limited to age specific maximums (see table below) regardless of actual cost for the purchased LTC insurance policy. To help you understand the implications I’ll outline at LTC insurance for three separate age scenarios (ages 55, 61, and 71):

Currently a basic 3-year policy with $150 benefit per day would have an annual premium of around $2,100 at age 55, $2,900 at age 61, and $6,900 at age 71 (quotes may differ given different assumptions and are likely to be lower for males and couples but may be higher or not available based on health history).

Long Term Care Deductible Limits

To help understand how tax deductions actually work if buying this insurance individually, I’ll use the three LTC examples outlined above: To allow for this comparison, I’ve assumed that the cost of the above three policies are the only tax deductible medical expense. This is important because the deductibility is dependent on exceeding a 10% floor based on AGI. Anyone with an AGI (i.e. number at the bottom of the first page of your 1040 IRS filing) of more than $60K would not be able to deduct their LTC premium under any of these scenarios unless there were other deductible medical expenses. Most of our clients that purchase an individual policy are not able to deduct premiums. In retirement deductible medical expenses rise and then some of these premiums are tax-deductible.

On the other hand, the same insurance policy purchased by a business provides tax deduction of LTC insurance premiums up to age limits and may even cover the entire premium (see below for details).

Sole Proprietors, Partnerships, S Corporations, and LLCs can provide owners and spouses with LTC premium tax-deductions that are only limited by age specific maximums (see above table – which shows that at a business can pay up to $1,530 for an owner’s (aged 51-60) LTC premium tax-free). If we look at the same three examples AND purchase the policy using one of these firms the tax deduction in 2017 for the 55 year old would be $1,530 (less than the cost for a base policy of $2,100), the 61 year old would have their premium fully paid tax-free (since their premium of $2,900 is less than the maximum limit of $4,090 for her age group), and the 71 year-old would pay no tax on $5,110 (though premium total was $6,900).

C Corporation and non-profits may cover LTC insurance premiums  for owners or members tax-free (without age limits mentioned above).

Using the same three examples AND having the C Corporation or the nonprofit pay for the premiums, then the entire LTC insurance premium for all age groups would be tax-free.

In summary, Long Term Care planning involves much more than just buying a LTC insurance policy. It encompasses consideration of a myriad of integrated services and support that should be aligned with your wishes both early and later in life. LTC insurance is one way to cover basic ADLs. Before making a purchase of LTC insurance you must have calculated what you wish to cover yourself and what will be paid for by insurance benefits. It is more cost effective if LTC insurance is provided by an employer (with no cost to you) and even better if you are the employer. As the employer you can design a policy that best fits your plan and offers tax-free premiums.

Edi Alvarez, CFP®
BS, BEd, MS

www.aikapa.com

Two common estate planning failures

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(1) Failing to plan for incapacity:

Only 33% of Americans have executed a medical directive (as found by the American Bar Association). AARP (American Association for Retired Persons) reports that 45% of Americans over the age of 50 have a durable power of attorney.

Legal documents to plan for incapacity include a power of attorney, a medical directive and a trust. Even though it is a good first step, a comprehensive estate plan requires these documents and more.

Media mogul Sumner Redstone had an estate estimated to be over $42B, but late in his life a series of conflicts began over his competence and the control of his estate. According to the granddaughter, “the aunt and other family members succeeded in reversing decades of my grandfather’s careful estate planning and poised themselves to seize control of Viacom and CBS.”

Naturally, we all have some expectation of what our life’s work will amount to. The legal system has documents that can be used to support our wishes if we are unable to make decisions, but who decides when we are not able to make them? As difficult and challenging as it is, we might want to consider what indicators we wish to use to trigger assistance. Otherwise, you could find yourself making a good many mistakes before anyone deploys these legal estate documents.

In one case, the California Court of Appeals ruled: “Appellant produced evidence of forgetfulness, erratic, unstable and emotional behavior, and of suspicion, probably delusional at times, on the part of the testatrix. This is of no avail unless it were shown, as it was not, that it had direct influence on the testamentary act.” In essence, the court is saying that the individual displaying these disturbing signs is still capable of making their own financial decisions. After all, we are all entitled to make poor decisions.

In a perfect world we would never have to deal with diminishing faculties or the thought that, at some point, someone else will have to make decisions for us. The truth is, most of us struggle with the timing and triggers that have to do with relinquishing our ability to self-direct or make our own decisions.

Estate planning begins with the basic documents, but effectively planning for incapacity entails much more.

(2) Dying without a will:

Dying without a will doesn’t impact the deceased, but signing a will does make it easier on those left behind. And yet, people who ought to know a whole lot better continue to die intestate (without a will). Famous examples include Abraham Lincoln. Lincoln was a successful and skilled attorney and yet he left an estate of $110,297 without a will. In more recent times, the entertainer, Prince, died without a will, leaving an estate of $300M. Though Prince’s sister and five half-siblings appear now to be the instate heirs, this would have turned out differently if not for DNA testing. Carlin Q claimed to be the “love child” of Prince and would have inherited the entire estate (!) had DNA testing not proven that he was not a biological offspring of Prince.

It is shocking that over 64% of Americans do not have a will. Yet a will is simple to create. Dying without a will means the estate will be handled by attorneys in front of a probate court. Dying intestate results in delays, higher fees and possible litigation. It surprises many that intestacy can create other messy dispositions based upon the order of death or age of those inheriting assets.

In many states, each child and the surviving spouse will inherit an equal percentage. If a trust is not established, a minor child may be entitled to receive inherited assets by age 18. Ex-spouses may have control of the inheritance until the child reaches adulthood.
In some states, if a married couple with no descendants (children) and no wills are injured in the same accident and one spouse dies prior to the other even by a few minutes the outcome will be that only one spouse’s descendants will inherit the couple’s joint estate and the other spouse’s family will receive no assets. In California, Alaska, Kentucky, Texas, and Wisconsin the state requires that the spouse must outlive the other by more than 120 hours, not just a few minutes, for the assets to pass to the ‘surviving spouse’ and skip the first-to-die family.

Some famous examples include musician, songwriter and poet,  Kurt Cobain, who left a detailed suicide note but didn’t sign a will. As it happened, his wife and daughter were his only heirs and the estate was split in half. Martin Luther King Jr. died without a will leaving his children in a long fight over the estate.

So how does the state decide who manages the assets for under-age children when there is no will? Current state statutes set an order of appointment with the surviving spouse normally being the first person, followed by the closest BLOOD family members. This is determined by relationship, not competence. Think about it. Do you really want anyone to manage the estate for your loved ones just because they are your closest blood relative?

Prince’s estate is an example of how much of his legacy will be wasted as six different heirs without knowledge or competence in the music field are now fighting over how to handle his vast music empire and unreleased songs. Of course, he is gone so at least he doesn’t have to worry about it, BUT his fans will be affected.

Finally, the wishes of the deceased may not be respected without a will. NFL player Steve McNair purchased a million dollar home for his mother to live in, but he retained title to the home. On his death, his wife demanded that the mother pay rent and when she couldn’t, she had to move out! It would have been so simple for McNair to provide a written will stating that his mother could keep the home when he was gone.

Estate planning is a significant part of your overall financial picture. We’ve reserved the month of June to review beneficiaries on your accounts and to encourage you to review your wishes for your estate plan. Our priority in estate planning is to ensure that you are comfortable with the basic estate planning documents (DPOA, will and trust) that will protect you and your family to a very large degree in the event of your incapacity or death.

Edi Alvarez, CFP®
BS, BEd, MS

www.aikapa.com

‘Burn rate’ should be key to retirement savings

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People often talk about “saving for retirement.” Few question the need to put aside adequate savings to ensure the successful funding of their retirement plan. The operative word though is “adequate.” How much in the way of savings is “adequate”? Of course, it differs from individual to individual, but you will most likely find that spending is the common variable that shapes the limits of what constitutes adequate savings. With few exceptions, our spending needs in retirement will exceed the amount provided by our inflation adjusted social security benefit. Everything else being equal, the success or failure of any effort to fund retirement is above all dependent on lifestyle and spending habits or ‘burn rate’.

To help you visualize “the power of spending” and its impact on a retirement portfolio, I’ve created four basic retirement funding scenarios. These scenarios assume the same retirement period (beginning 2017 and ending 28 years later), an annual social security benefit of $40K (adjusted for inflation), and a $1M diversified portfolio with a rate of return of 5.5%. The only varying parameter between scenarios is the amount of spending each year with associated tax liability. Each scenario was created using 500 cycles of Monte Carlo probability simulations that modify every parameter except length of retirement to address a range of economic variables and unexpected expenses. The charts include only four (out of 500) projection lines from “best case” to “worst case”.

For the first scenario, our hypothetical client spends $50K/year (before tax), having accumulated $1M at the point that she is ready to retire in 2017. As the chart demonstrates, for the best possible outcome the $50K annual spending client actually grows her nest egg to $1.4M over 28 years (this is the blue line or highest line at year 2045) ― leaving, I should add, a sizable chunk of change for a life beyond 28 years, long term care needs, or for her legacy (be it a favorite charity or her grandchildren). If all economic variables are worse than expected and things don’t quite pan out, she can still expect $250K in assets (see the gray line or lowest line at 2045) after enjoying 28 years in retirement. Not too shabby!

But what if our hypothetical client was in the habit of spending about $75K/year (before tax) instead of $50K? (again, assuming she starts her retirement in 2017 with a $1M portfolio). In this situation, assuming everything goes better than expected the Monte Carlo simulations show a surplus of over $1M after 28 years, BUT in a worst-case scenario the portfolio is depleted after 20 years (around 2037) ― enough to make a financial planner seek ways to protect against the worst-case scenario.

Approaching the Bay Area experience is a hypothetical client who spends $100K/year (before tax). What then? The $1M portfolio would not last her beyond 21 years (2038) even in the best scenario. Unfortunately, there is a higher probability that it will be gone after 15 years (2031). While the worst-case simulation shows that the portfolio could be depleted in as little as 10 or 11 years (2028).

Though there are many other possible spending targets (and also more parameters to consider than those in these scenarios), our final hypothetical client spends $150K/year (before tax) to maintain her lifestyle. In which case, the $1M portfolio would last 9 years tops (2026) and could well be depleted within 5 years (2022).

The story told by the 4 charts is very clear. Saving and spending levels must be aligned for a successful retirement strategy. Clearly, accumulated assets alone are not in and of themselves indicative of success over the long-haul. On the other hand, spending habits and your ability to adhere to a budget are very useful indicators. They can provide a realistic view of your retirement “burn rate” and better align your savings today with future need.

Think of it this way, your approach to spending and your connection to buying are formed throughout your life. It becomes an unshakable habit. For this reason, spending seldom decreases in retirement except with a great deal of stress, anxiety, and depression. To avoid this unhappy outcome, the smartest and healthiest action is to establish a realistic budget for the lifestyle that you seek, then plan your savings around the cost to sustain that lifestyle. The goal of your retirement savings would be to build enough wealth to support your lifestyle.

Though planning for retirement includes more than your burn rate and savings rate they are critical beginnings. What I like best is that these are aspects of retirement planning that we can control.

Edi Alvarez, CFP®
BS, BEd, MS

www.aikapa.com

Your Credit History – wealth and identity

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Our recorded credit history is tracked by the three national credit bureaus (Equifax, TransUnion, and Experian) and each calculates a credit score. Though the credit score is a required component for loans it is NOT based on our entire financial history and it may not represent us correctly. It is up to us to ensure that it does. Why is this important? For your wealth and your identity.

Each credit bureau uses an algorithm (model) to generate a number (FICO score) based on your recorded credit history that is, imperfectly, a measure of the risk the system associates to someone with your recorded history. Lenders who depend on credit bureau reports for assessing whether or not to lend, use this score as one measure of your “credit worthiness”. Those with no financial history or less than sterling repayment records are likely to face higher cost loans IF they are able to obtain a loan at all. It is true that loans are available for those with lower credit scores but additional requirements will be imposed, including a low debt-to-income ratio. Even then, the loan will be at a higher rate.

Couples can sometimes be surprised when one partner lowers the expected family credit score. These couples may be effectively managing their financial life and yet obtain a low combined credit score that will raise their cost of borrowing. In most cases, the partner with the higher credit score applies for the loan singly to obtain the best rates (‘excellent’ rates are generally available with a FICO of 780 or higher), while the other partner must rebuild their history.

As time goes on, more and more of our interactions are managed electronically. Hand-in-glove with electronic transactions come ways for us to be identified and verified electronically. It is now more common for our financial identity to be confirmed by using facts found in one of our three credit bureau history records. It is crucial that you know and can recognize all information in each of these reports.

Once you have checked your history thoroughly, you’ll find an annual check-up to be quick and sufficient. Obtaining your credit history and checking it for errors can be completed on your own or with our assistance. If you need to make corrections, let us know or contact the specific credit bureau directly.

Finally, when you are getting ready to take out a loan for a large purchase be sure to first check your credit history (more than three months ahead) – you don’t want surprises.

So how might you be able to improve or maintain your credit score? Here are a few essentials to keep in mind:

  • don’t miss payment due dates – set up automatic minimum payments even if you pay your accounts in full (this will protect against the unexpected)
  • monitor your cash flow – don’t over extend yourself – try not to use more than 30% (better at less than 10%) of available credit (credit used compared to total credit available is called the ‘utilization rate’)
  • don’t apply for a lot of credit from different sources all at once – it can set off major alarm bells and may impede new financial loans for several months
  • if consolidation is indicated, try to keep your total credit the same and never close your oldest credit card
  • installment loans (i.e. car, mortgage) can have a positive impact on your score – be sure your lender actually reports to at least one bureau (some don’t)
  • your credit history can include a lot more than just a car loan or credit card – utility, cable, rent, and cell phone payment history can all be tracked and used either to boost the score or knock it down
  • if retirement is on the horizon, make extra effort while you are still earning to maximize all aspects of your credit history and bolster your credit score
  • if retired, disabled or unemployed restrain your credit card purchases and instead find ways to reduce expenses – it is more difficult to recover from credit card debt when income is limited
  • verify your credit history on a regular basis and correct errors promptly

Credit history is not a statement about you personally but a less than perfect measure to determine ‘credit worthiness’. It is best to capitalize on the rules to obtain the best score possible. Moreover, since credit history is now used to verify identity, it is incumbent on us to ensure the records have captured our information accurately.

Feel free to give us a call if you need help with the process.

Edi Alvarez, CFP®
BS, BEd, MS

www.aikapa.com

Understanding Longevity Risk and Your Retirement

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The oldest person alive today is Emma Morano of Vercelli, Italy who turned 117 this November. She was born in 1899! Queen Victoria was still on the throne of England and William McKinley was president of the United States. If you’d asked Emma in 1917 if she could imagine living long enough to see 2017, would she have imagined such a long life? Most Americans do not live as long as Emma, but in general we are living longer and healthier lives. The number of centenarians is on the rise. Longevity – long life – can have obvious perks, but also poses a conundrum in terms of finances. To help us plan for longevity we use “longevity risk” to measure the likelihood that you’ll run out of wealth before you’ll run out of life. In our planning we like to ensure that we mindfully set longevity at the right level for each person.

Few, if any of us, have advance knowledge of precisely when our time will come, so questions like this often boil down to statistics. You’ll sometimes hear that the average life expectancy for females is age 83 and age 81 for males, BUT are these appropriate target-end dates for your retirement plan? The truly important challenge is coming up with the best end-dates for retirement that will allow you to enjoy your wealth early while leaving enough assets to comfortably support you later in life.

In retirement planning, the variation in life expectancy can range quite dramatically and yet we find that client expectations generally fall into two categories, (1) those who want to make absolutely sure they don’t outlive their wealth, and (2) those who have a definite expiration date in mind, say 80 years of age, and believe that planning for life beyond that age is simply not relevant or realistic. The latter are often operating on some assumption based on, for example, both parents dying in their late 70s or not long after retirement.

At the risk of sounding morbid, but with the goal of having your retirement plan more fully represent your expected end of life target date, I want you to consider three facts that most often cause people to underestimate their longevity (in turn, this may help you understand why we sometimes encourage you to increase your target-end date):

Life expectancies that are often quoted may not be relevant since they are often calculated at birth. Life expectancy on reaching age 60 or 65 should be much higher than those quoted at birth since some will die before they reach this age. In fact, life expectancy for a 65-year-old, non-smoker is much higher. As an example, a 65-year-old female of average health has a 50% chance of reaching age 88 (see the table below) but once she reaches age 88 she has a much higher chance of reaching age 95.

longetvity_table

  1. Life expectancy is often calculated using mortality rates from a fixed year instead of projected to future expected mortality rates. Social Security Administration (SSA)’s period life tables are based on real mortalities in any given year. Though valuable, since they are real, they underestimate the observed trend for increased survival. As mentioned above, we perceive our survival based on our own anecdotal experiences. The question to ask ourselves, is this correct or is this an underestimation?
  2. Finally, we find that the population on which longevity risk calculations are based may not be appropriate. If we work with an aggregate US population life expectancy (as does the SSA period life tables) we must include a correction for socioeconomic and other factors that are known to impact mortality rates and could underestimate our lifespans. To-date there is evidence to indicate a positive link between income, education, long-term planning, and health. Yes, someone who plans and prepares appears (statistically) to live longer.

In case it is still not clear – let me explain. When planning retirement projections, the length of retirement greatly impacts planning choices (planning for 20 versus 45 years may require different strategies given the same wealth). Considering your specific longevity risk necessitates that we prepare for the contingencies that apply to you. There may be good reasons to target a lower longevity, but for most we will likely need to include, at the very least, a reasonable adjustment for expected increased longevity. This often means distribution of existing assets and thinking about end-of-life questions (a topic most prefer not to address too closely). If you are expecting a longer life, consider accumulating a pool of longevity assets (like some are doing to cover for potential Long-Term Care contingency) or purchasing a longevity annuity (this asset would only be used if you live past a certain age and, therefore, accumulate what are called mortality credits that can provide a good income late in life, but would be lost if you wind up passing sooner).

Obviously, estimations are just that, estimations. Still, a thoughtful scientific approach ought to be the foundation for retirement projections, never speculation or conjecture. Like Emma, some of us will be blessed with a long life, even inadvertently. One way or the other, I want all of us to feel that we’ve had a life well spent, and that will depend largely on how well we’ve planned for possible contingencies in your life.

This educational piece was drawn from my work with clients, www.longevityillustrator.org, the Social Security Administration period life tables, and a recent academic publication by Wade D. Pfau, Ph.D., published in The Journal of Financial Planning, November 2016, vol 29, issue 11, pp 40.

Edi Alvarez, CFP®
BS, BEd, MS

www.aikapa.com

2016 Presidential Election and the Markets

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No matter the results, this is certainly turning out to be an “interesting” election. One of the things I find intriguing, is the willingness of financial “experts” and pundits to make predictions about the economic and financial ramifications of electing either candidate. Predicting the markets is fraught with difficulties at the best of times. Predicting lasting market behavior based on campaign promises and fluid party platforms is impossible.

The summary of pundit prognostications below does NOT reflect my views, but it does reflect the sort of noise I hear daily from market timers and day traders (a high proportion traditionally lean toward the Republican Party).

On a Clinton Victory
What reaction can we expect: Mild relief, to include a rally in stocks and bonds, but nothing particularly bullish though we expect to regain at least our September 30th gains. Expect little change in oil/gold and, similarly, little change in the value of the US dollar by year-end.

Perceived winners: Hospitals (no Obamacare repeal or replacement, maybe some small tweaks); small businesses (new tax breaks); alternative energy (continued investment in alternative energy programs).

Perceived losers: Biotech/pharma (fears of regulation/price ceilings); energy & coal (increased environmental regulation reducing coal and fossil fuel production); private prisons (Clinton wants to shut them down).

On a Trump Victory
What reaction can we expect: Stocks: a selloff lasting into the New Year. Bonds: Treasuries lower in the near term, but not a large change. Dollar: lower as markets take in the cancellation or renegotiation of major trade deals. Gold/Oil: both up on uncertainty.

Perceived winners: Coal (anticipating reduced regulation on coal production and sales); overall energy sector (in a relaxed regulatory environment); pharma/biotech (little or no risk of price controls or ceilings); banks (potentially higher rates, rollback of certain Dodd-Frank regulations).

Perceived losers: Hospitals (changes to healthcare law, including repeal of Obamacare); alternative energy (less funding and support for alternative programs and a return to energy reliance on oil/coal).

For what it’s worth, at the time this goes to press [October 31] online betting sites show a 70% probability that the Democrats will win the Senate and Hillary Clinton a 75% chance of winning the presidency. The media, on the other hand, suggests that there are ways for Donald Trump to garner enough Electoral College votes for an upset victory. This additional uncertainty will have potential market consequences until the end of election day.

As investors, as Americans simply trying to decide how to manage our finances, what do we surmise from all this prognostication? Basically, don’t lose perspective. Our thinking should change very little since our long-term goals have not changed. In 2012, the S&P 500 dropped 7% ahead of and after the election. The level of fear so far indicates that in 2016 we may see a similar drop which will provide another buying opportunity. Personally, though I understand why these predictions are being made I do not believe it is possible to predict market direction in the long-term. Storms come and go and staying the course is safest until the facts are in. Throughout, we remain true to our goals – rebalance as necessary and stick to a well-diversified portfolio.

Edi Alvarez, CFP®
BS, BEd, MS

www.aikapa.com